An Alternative Perspective on Mutual
Fund Performance

Abstract

This article examines the returns and risk-adjusted performance of the 99 mutual funds that have been in continuous operation for the 45-year period 1967–2011. The returns and risk-adjusted performance of the mutual funds are compared to the results of a passive buy-and-hold strategy (S&P 500) and simulated portfolios market timed in accordance with the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor. Over the 45-year history of the Super Bowl through 2011, the simulated market-timed portfolios outperformed 95 of the 99 mutual funds based upon return and terminal portfolio value, and all 99 mutual funds on a risk-adjusted basis.

TOPICS: Mutual funds/passive investing/indexing, performance measurement, simulations