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Midterm Elections’ Stock Market Surge: An Unintentional Gift from US Politicians

Jędrzej Białkowski and Aynaz Nahavandi
The Journal of Wealth Management Spring 2019, 21 (4) 76-84; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jwm.2019.21.4.076
Jędrzej Białkowski
is a professor in the Department of Economics and Finance at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand
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Aynaz Nahavandi
is an MAFE postgraduate student in the Department of Economics and Finance at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand
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Abstract

This article provides evidence for the existence of a midterm election effect. By examining the quarterly total returns on the S&P 500 Index between 1954 and 2017, we show that, 9 times out of 10, the index has been positive in the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the following two quarters. These returns compound to nearly 25% in those three quarters. Neither changes in the monetary nor the fiscal policies were able to explain the effect. We show that the known third year of a presidential term effect is weaker than the examined midterm election effect.

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The Journal of Wealth Management: 21 (4)
The Journal of Wealth Management
Vol. 21, Issue 4
Spring 2019
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Midterm Elections’ Stock Market Surge: An Unintentional Gift from US Politicians
Jędrzej Białkowski, Aynaz Nahavandi
The Journal of Wealth Management Jan 2019, 21 (4) 76-84; DOI: 10.3905/jwm.2019.21.4.076

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Midterm Elections’ Stock Market Surge: An Unintentional Gift from US Politicians
Jędrzej Białkowski, Aynaz Nahavandi
The Journal of Wealth Management Jan 2019, 21 (4) 76-84; DOI: 10.3905/jwm.2019.21.4.076
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