PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU - McCabe, Bernard J.
TI - Analytic Approximation for the Probability That a Portfolio Survives Forever
AID - 10.3905/jwm.1999.320343
DP - 1999 Jan 31
TA - The Journal of Wealth Management
PG - 43--47
VI - 1
IP - 4
4099 - http://jwm.pm-research.com/content/1/4/43.short
4100 - http://jwm.pm-research.com/content/1/4/43.full
AB - The author investigates the interaction between the uncertainty of actual returns and the ability of a given asset allocation to allow a portfolio both to provide for current income needs and to generate enough real returns to meet future income needs (i.e., growth). The author derives a formula that measures the probability that the portfolio survives indefinitely, given annual disbursement assumptions. This formulation could be useful, for instance, in the definition of the investment and distribution parameters for charitable trusts.