PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Jędrzej Białkowski AU - Aynaz Nahavandi TI - Midterm Elections’ Stock Market Surge: <em>An Unintentional Gift from US Politicians</em> AID - 10.3905/jwm.2019.21.4.076 DP - 2019 Jan 31 TA - The Journal of Wealth Management PG - 76--84 VI - 21 IP - 4 4099 - https://pm-research.com/content/21/4/76.short 4100 - https://pm-research.com/content/21/4/76.full AB - This article provides evidence for the existence of a midterm election effect. By examining the quarterly total returns on the S&amp;P 500 Index between 1954 and 2017, we show that, 9 times out of 10, the index has been positive in the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the following two quarters. These returns compound to nearly 25% in those three quarters. Neither changes in the monetary nor the fiscal policies were able to explain the effect. We show that the known third year of a presidential term effect is weaker than the examined midterm election effect.TOPICS: Mutual funds/passive investing/indexing, financial crises and financial market history, performance measurement