PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Todd Feldman
AU  - Alan Jung
TI  - Leading Economic Indicator and Global Stock Market Returns
AID  - 10.3905/jwm.2022.1.168
DP  - 2022 Mar 26
TA  - The Journal of Wealth Management
PG  - jwm.2022.1.168
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/early/2022/03/26/jwm.2022.1.168.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/early/2022/03/26/jwm.2022.1.168.full
AB  - Feldman, Jung, and Klein’s 2015 paper finds that the combination of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) and a 200-day simple moving average outperforms a buy and hold strategy on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis for the US stock market. We propose to examine whether the results for the US market hold for markets outside the US in addition to the US stock market. Results indicate the LEI and 200-day moving average strategy holds for six of the eight markets namely US, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico outperforming a buy and hold strategy on an absolute and risk adjusted basis. Nevertheless, statistical results pro- vided mixed results on the statistical significance of the investment timing results. Other results indicate that the examining LEI across markets can be useful for timing the US market.