Predicting price intervals under exogenously induced stress

PLoS One. 2021 Sep 23;16(9):e0255038. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255038. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

We present an experimental protocol to examine the relationship between exogenously induced stress and confidence in a setting applicable to financial markets. Confidence will be measured by a prediction interval for a one period ahead price forecast, based on a series of 100 previous prices; narrower (wider) prediction intervals will be indicative of greater (lower) confidence. Stress will be induced using the Cold Pressor Arm Wrap, a variation of the Cold Pressor Test. Risk attitudes, and personality traits are also considered as mediating factors.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Anticipation, Psychological*
  • Arm / physiopathology*
  • Cold Temperature
  • Commerce / economics*
  • Forecasting*
  • Humans
  • Investments / economics
  • Investments / trends*
  • Stress, Physiological*

Grants and funding

Funding is provided by the Curtin Experimental Economics Lab, as well as Mr Shead’s student resource consumables fund. The Director of the lab (S Thomas) is a co-author and has been involved in the design of the study.